Heterogeneous expectations in the gold market: Specification and estimation

The increase in the price of gold between 2002 and 2011 appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price 'bubble', suggesting that chartists (feedback traders) were highly active in the gold market during this period. Hence, this paper develops and tests empirically several models incorporating heterogeneous expectations of agents, specifically fundamentalists and chartists, for the gold market. The empirical results show that both agent types are important in explaining historical gold prices but that the 10-year bull run of gold in the early 2000s is consistent with the presence of agents extrapolating long-term trends. Technically this paper is a further step toward providing an empirical foundation for certain assumptions used in the heterogeneous agents literature. For example, the empirical results presented in this paper compare the economical and statistical significance of numerous switching variable specifications that are generally only introduced ad hoc. © 2014 Elsevier B.V

Balancing cryptoassets and gold: a weighted-risk-contribution index for the alternative asset space

Bitcoin is foremost amongst the emerging asset class knownas cryptoassets. Two noteworthy characteristics of the returns of non-stablecoin cryptoassets are their high volatility, which brings with it ahigh level of risk, and their high intraclass correlation, which limits thebenefits that can be had by diversifying across multiple cryptoassets. Yetcryptoassets exhibit no correlation with gold, a highly-liquid yet scarceasset which has proved to function as a safe haven during crises affectingtraditional financial systems. As exemplified by Shannon’s Demon, a lackof correlation between assets opens the door to principled risk controlthrough so-called volatility harvesting involving periodic rebalancing.In this paper we propose an index which combines a basket of five cryp-toassets with an investment in gold in a way that aims to improve therisk profile of the resulting portfolio while preserving its independencefrom mainstream financial asset classes such as stocks, bonds and fiatcurrencies. We generalise the theory of Equal Risk Contribution to allowfor weighting according to a desired level of contribution to volatility. Wefind a crypto–gold weighting based on Weighted Risk Contribution to behistorically more effective in terms of Sharpe Ratio than several alterna-tive asset allocation strategies including Shannon’s Demon. Within thecrypto-basket, whose constituents are selected and rebalanced monthly,we find an Equal Weighting scheme to be more effective in terms of thesame metric than a market capitalisation weighting

Implementation of a Toffoli Gate with Superconducting Circuits

The quantum Toffoli gate allows universal reversible classical computation. It is also an important primitive in many quantum circuits and quantum error correction schemes. Here we demonstrate the realization of a Toffoli gate with three superconducting transmon qubits coupled to a microwave resonator. By exploiting the third energy level of the transmon qubit, the number of elementary gates needed for the implementation of the Toffoli gate, as well as the total gate time can be reduced significantly in comparison to theoretical proposals using two-level systems only. We characterize the performance of the gate by full process tomography and Monte Carlo process certification. The gate fidelity is found to be $68.5\pm0.5$%.Comment: 4 pages, 5figure

Can gold be used as a hedge against the risks of Sharia-compliant securities? Application for Islamic portfolio management

In this paper, we investigate whether gold hedges Sharia-compliant stocks and Sukuk during the period from September 2005 to October 2017. The inference is taken by using both the DCC-GARCH model and the wavelet coherence analysis. On the whole, our finding suggests that gold is not effective in hedging the fluctuations of Sharia-compliant securities. However, we find that combining gold with stocks (and Sukuk) is useful in diversification and portfolio optimization. These results imply that, while gold is an excellent hedge for plain vanilla securities, it is not for Islamic exposures. This is important in light of the increasing amount of assets that are managed according to Islamic screening

The other Higgses, at resonance, in the Lee-Wick extension of the Standard Model

Within the framework of the Lee Wick Standard Model (LWSM) we investigate Higgs pair production $gg \to h_0 h_0$, $gg \to h_0 \tilde p_0$ and top pair production $gg \to \bar tt$ at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), where the neutral particles from the Higgs sector ($h_0$, $\tilde h_0$ and $\tilde p_0$) appear as possible resonant intermediate states. We investigate the signal $gg \to h_0 h_0 \to \bar b b \gamma \gamma$ and we find that the LW Higgs, depending on its mass-range, can be seen not long after the LHC upgrade in 2012. More precisely this happens when the new LW Higgs states are below the top pair threshold. In $gg \to \bar tt$ the LW states, due to the wrong-sign propagator and negative width, lead to a dip-peak structure instead of the usual peak-dip structure which gives a characteristic signal especially for low-lying LW Higgs states. We comment on the LWSM and the forward-backward asymmetry in view of the measurement at the TeVatron. Furthermore, we present a technique which reduces the hyperbolic diagonalization to standard diagonalization methods. We clarify issues of spurious phases in the Yukawa sector.Comment: 36 pages, 16 figures, 3 table

MR imaging of therapy-induced changes of bone marrow

MR imaging of bone marrow infiltration by hematologic malignancies provides non-invasive assays of bone marrow cellularity and vascularity to supplement the information provided by bone marrow biopsies. This article will review the MR imaging findings of bone marrow infiltration by hematologic malignancies with special focus on treatment effects. MR imaging findings of the bone marrow after radiation therapy and chemotherapy will be described. In addition, changes in bone marrow microcirculation and metabolism after anti-angiogenesis treatment will be reviewed. Finally, new specific imaging techniques for the depiction of regulatory events that control blood vessel growth and cell proliferation will be discussed. Future developments are directed to yield comprehensive information about bone marrow structure, function and microenvironment

Technical trading and cryptocurrencies

This paper carries out a comprehensive examination of technical trading rules in cryptocurrency markets, using data from two Bitcoin markets and three other popular cryptocurrencies. We employ almost 15,000 technical trading rules from the main five classes of technical trading rules and find significant predictability and profitability for each class of technical trading rule in each cryptocurrency. We find that the breakeven transaction costs are substantially higher than those typically found in cryptocurrency markets. To safeguard against data-snooping, we implement a number of multiple hypothesis procedures which confirms our findings that technical trading rules do offer significant predictive power and profitability to investors. We also show that the technical trading rules offer substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than the simple buy-and-hold strategy, showing protection against lengthy and severe drawdowns associated with cryptocurrency markets. However there is no predictability for Bitcoin in the out-of-sample period, although predictability remains in other cryptocurrency markets